What happens in Ukraine will determine the rate of the inflation. How sanctions escalate will decide the rate of economic growth, and how many jobs will be on the market.
That is why the AmCham board had a special economic assessment with the Prime Minister's advisor on Ukraine, Tomáš Pojar. No probable military or negotiated end to the fighting in Ukraine exists today, and the likeliest outcome is that fighting will still be raging as Czechs sit down to their Christmas carp.
The Kremlin thrives on being unpredictable, but attacking a NATO country militarily is probably too risky even for them. They are more likely to try to surprise through economic means. Both the government and business predicted far more effective cyber attacks than the Russians have managed so far, but Russian coders may have held their best efforts back.
The EU has remained remarkably unified, but faces a challenging summer negotiating further sanctions, including, of course, oil and gas.