Inflation is popping out of the Czech National Bank's target band. Employee expectations are exceeding the wage increases expected and budgeted by employers. The housing market is hurtling ever higher. The danger is that one feeds the other two, and the complex system of the economy begins to hyperventilate as price rises feed wage rises that feed back into price rises.
At its spring Macro Intel event, AmCham VP Michal Nebeský of Citi led a careful sifting of a wide range of price statistics. He was joined by Czech National Bank board member Tomáš Nidetzký who showed how supply chain problems, consumer spending, and government covid support programs were influencing prices across sectors. Sandor Bodnar of Hays Czech Republic presented both actual wage levels and both employer and employee expectations in the coming months. Michal Skořepa of Česká spořitelna provided mortgage and housing price data.
The next session of AmCham Intel will cover the short and long term impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.