Juggling the risks in 2026

Business is always dealing with external forces. Sometimes those forces are long established and known. Sometimes these forces are new and how they will impact your business could be both a risk and an opportunity. 

2026 is a year of the multiple major forces that have jolted the global economy out of equilibrium. 

You have the geopolitical. Russian continues to threaten to re-establish its former empire in the eastern part of Europe. Facing the reality that its economic strength no longer allows it to finance the global order that has produced so much prosperity since 1945, the United States abruptly has questioned its commitment to alliances and the free market

Then you have the economic. China has the largest trade surplus since World War II.

Then there is the technological. AI not only promises exponential improvements in innovation and efficiency, but major disruption in employment and the global consumer base. 

Finally, there is humanity. In Europe, that means aging and declining populations, and growing resistance to solving talent and people shortage with immigration. 

All these forces shift around the stack of decisions that constitute business planning. Keeping the status quo probably is a strategy that will end in failure. The question, then, is how to anticipate how each force impacts each business decision, and how each force will impact other forces. 

For AmCham’s Vice-President of Innovation Jaroslav Skvrna of Deloitte, AI is the force that could be the primary driver of change. “AI’s rapid shift toward autonomous decision‑making will continue and will start to materialize more in many areas of business,” Skvrna says. “While the shift is visible, more rapid, and inevitable, it is crucial to develop robust governance for society’s ability to govern it.”

AmCham will start having that conversation within our membership in February.

For AmCham’s VP of Macroeconomics Martin Skrehota of Carrier, businesses cannot ignore the immediate threat that their business can be disrupted severely by sudden twists in geopolitics. “The expanding number of ongoing geopolitical tensions – such as trade disputes, regional conflicts, and shifting alliances – will drive companies to prioritize resilience and real-time visibility in their supply chain through digital solutions,” Skrehota says. “These uncertainties will accelerate shifts in sourcing strategies and logistics networks, as organizations seek to mitigate risks associated with global instability.”

Martin will join us online later this spring to map out the risks and the options companies have to navigate through them successfully.

For AmCham President Pavel Sovicka of Panattoni, the aim is to be ready for anything by doing what we do better. “The geopolitical shifts and further increasing tensions. do not favor cross-continent co-operation, but will push the shifts and strategic projects forward within Europe,” Sovicka says. “The EU has a great chance to stimulate industrial growth to secure more self sufficiency across all the sectors of economy. This should have positive impact for the Central Europe including Czechia if the governments show their will to be one of the active players within Europe.”

Amcham has already met with Czech Permanent Representative Vladimir Bartl and MEP Tomas Zdechovsky to discuss the evolving EU economic strategy, and how Czechia could play a more prominent role in European innovation in the future.